EUR/GBP edges lower toward 0.8350 ahead of Eurozone HICP inflation data
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Akhtar Faruqui
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31 Oct @ 07:56 (GMT+0)

EUR/GBP edges lower toward 0.8350 ahead of Eurozone HICP inflation data

  • EUR/GBP loses ground despite a less-dovish sentiment surrounding the ECB following the robust Eurozone GDP data.
  • Traders await Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data on Thursday.
  • UK budget includes £40 billion in tax increases aimed at reducing public finance deficits and enhancing funding for public services.

EUR/GBP trades slightly lower during early European hours on Thursday near 0.8360, following strong gains in the previous session. This downside may be limited, as the Euro could find support from investors scaling back expectations of a large rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December.

This sentiment shift regarding the ECB’s policy outlook comes after stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany released on Wednesday. Investors will keep an eye on the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Thursday.

According to preliminary estimates from Eurostat, the seasonally adjusted Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% quarter-over-quarter in Q3, surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. Year-over-year, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.9%, above the forecasted 0.8% growth.

In Germany, GDP rose by 0.2% QoQ in Q3, recovering from a 0.3% decline in Q2 and exceeding expectations of a 0.1% contraction, based on preliminary data. Additionally, Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annual inflation rate of 2.0% in October, a three-month high, up from 1.6% in September and above the projected 1.8%, according to preliminary estimates.

The EUR/GBP cross also gained support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) weakened following the UK Labour government’s first budget announcement on Wednesday. This budget includes £40 billion in tax hikes aimed at reducing public finance gaps and bolstering public services, as reported by CNBC. A major revenue source in the budget is a rise in National Insurance (NI) contributions, a tax on earnings paid by employers.

Furthermore, traders are likely watching an upcoming keynote address by Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden at a conference hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Bank for International Settlements on the “Opportunities and Challenges of Emerging Technologies in the Financial Ecosystem.”

Interest rates FAQs

Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.