Gold price (XAU/USD) finds support after slipping below the crucial support of $2,300 in Tuesday’s early American session. The yellow metal rebounds after weak S&P Global United States preliminary PMI for April weighed on the US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, falls below 106.00 after the PMI report turned out weak. The agency showed that the Manufacturing PMI surprisingly fell sharply to 49.9 from expectations of 52.0 and the prior reading of 51.9. A reading below 50.0 is itself considered a contraction. Also, the Services PMI that represents the service sector, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, drops surprisingly to 50.9 from expectations of 52.0 and the former reading of 51.7. A sharp decline in PMI indicates weak spending by households or the de-stocking of inventory by owners.
The outlook for Gold is still uncertain. Investors shrug off Middle East fears amid hopes that the conflict between Iran and Israel will not escalate further. This has improved investors’ risk appetite while safe-haven demand has waned.
Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields rise to 4.64% as investors shift focus to the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The inflation data will provide cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) guidance on interest rates in the May policy meeting, in which policymakers are widely anticipated to keep them unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. The Fed’s preference for keeping interest rates higher bodes well for the US bond yields and weighs on Gold.
Gold price finds temporary support after facing an intense sell-off post breakdown of the Symmetrical Triangle formation on the hourly time frame. The precious metal slips below $2,300 as a downside break of the above-mentioned pattern explodes the volatility, resulting in wider ticks on the downside and heavy selling volume.
The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,317 is acting as a major barricade for the Gold price bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has delivered a range shift move from the 40.00-60.00 territory to the 20.00-40.00 region, indicating that a bearish momentum has been triggered.
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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