EUR: Looking a bit pricey – ING

Eurozone flash inflation estimates for October showed a re-acceleration to 2.0%, which is understandably favouring a repricing to the hawkish side in the Euro (EUR) curve, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/USD is starting to look a bit expensive

“The OIS market now prices in 58bp of easing by the European Central Bank over December and January, with the chances of a half-size move in December now having been scaled back to just 22%.”

“There are no ECB speakers until Monday and today is a holiday in some eurozone markets, meaning potentially slightly reduced action in the euro markets.”

“EUR/USD is starting to look a bit expensive in the upper half of the 1.08-1.09 range, and barring a US jobs data-induced push today, we favour some depreciation in the pair into US Election Day, with a move back to 1.0800 as being completely in line with a wide rate differential in favour of USD.”

(This story was corrected on November 01 at 10:03 GMT to say, that the research report is from ING, not UOB Group.)