Gold price (XAU/USD) rallies above $2,220 in Thursday’s early American session. The precious metal exhibits firm footing ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data for February, which will be published on Friday.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) could dial back rate cut expectations if the underlying inflation data suggests price pressures persist. Such a scenario would lead to an increase in yields on interest-bearing assets, such as Treasury bonds, whose appeal strengthens in a high-inflation environment. On the contrary, softer-than-expected inflation could boost expectations for a Fed rate cut in the June meeting, and support the broad narrative of three rate cuts for overall 2024.
The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts as initiating them too soon or lowering them too much could reinforce price pressures again. Meanwhile, a delay in cutting interest rates could result in unnecessary pressure on the labor market and the economy.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, retreats after refreshing a six-week high at 104.72. The USD index fails to maintain strength despite the final estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the final quarter of 2023 showed that the economy grew by 3.4%. As per the preliminary estimates, the economy expanded by 3.2%.
Gold price advances above the crucial resistance of $2,220. The precious metal aims to recapture the all-time highs slightly above $2,220. All short-to-long term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are sloping higher, suggesting strong near-term demand.
The Gold price could face a hurdle near $2,250, which coincides with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, after breaking above the resistance of $2,220. The Fibonacci tool is plotted from December 4 high at $2,144.48 to December 13 low at $1,973.13. On the downside, December 4 high at $2,144.48 will support the Gold price bulls.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds after cooling down to 64.00 from the extremely overbought zone.
Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
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