USD/CNH: Trump 2.0 tariff regime can be worse than Trump 1.0 one – ING

Turning to China, the extra 10% tariff next Tuesday is an aggressive surprise and follows a 10% across-the-board increase in tariffs on 4 February, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

Weaker CNH to keep the EMFX complex on the backfoot.

"If it goes through, the new tariff regime could potentially be worse than anything seen under Trump 1.0. There is clearly a powerplay at work here, where President Trump speaks to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday, the day before Chinese Premier Li delivers the Government Work Report at the Two Sessions gathering."

"These tariffs look more ideological than transactional and could potentially trigger a sharper response from Beijing. It is not our baseline view, but speculation may resurface that China will allow a weaker currency after all."

"Expect more attention on USD/CNH now and we have seen the three-month risk reversal - the price of a USD/CNH call option over an equivalent USD/CNH put option - rise back towards early February highs. The threat of a weaker renminbi can keep the majority of the EMFX complex on the backfoot."