Breaking: US JOLTS Job Openings decline to 7.56 million in February vs. 7.63 million forecast
The number of job openings on the last business day of February stood at 7.56 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday. This reading followed 7.76 million openings (revised from 7.74 million) reported in January and came in below the market expectation of 7.63 million.
"Over the month, hires and total separations held at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively," the BLS noted in its press release. "Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little."
Market reaction to JOLTS Job Openings data
The US Dollar (USD) showed no immediate reaction to this data. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.07% on the day at 104.25.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.01% | 0.25% | -0.97% | 0.56% | 0.45% | 0.83% | -0.00% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.22% | -1.02% | 0.53% | 0.45% | 0.81% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.25% | -0.22% | -1.23% | 0.31% | 0.23% | 0.58% | -0.29% | |
| JPY | 0.97% | 1.02% | 1.23% | 1.56% | 1.51% | 1.85% | 0.99% | |
| CAD | -0.56% | -0.53% | -0.31% | -1.56% | -0.06% | 0.28% | -0.60% | |
| AUD | -0.45% | -0.45% | -0.23% | -1.51% | 0.06% | 0.35% | -0.49% | |
| NZD | -0.83% | -0.81% | -0.58% | -1.85% | -0.28% | -0.35% | -0.87% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.29% | -0.99% | 0.60% | 0.49% | 0.87% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
This section below was published as a preview of the US JOLTS Job Openings data at 08:00 GMT.
- The US JOLTS data will be watched closely ahead of the release of the March employment report on Friday.
- Job openings are forecast to decline toward 7.63 million in February.
- The state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting policy.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released on Tuesday by the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in February, alongside the number of layoffs and quits.
JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers because it can provide valuable insights into the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been declining steadily since coming in above 12 million in March 2022, indicating a steady cooldown in labor market conditions. In September 2024, the number of jobs declined to 7.44 million, marking the lowest reading since January 2021, before rising to 7.8 million and 8.09 million in October and November, respectively. At the end of 2024, the data came in at 7.5 million before rebounding to 7.74 million in January.
What to expect in the next JOLTS report?
Markets expect job openings to decline to 7.63 million on the last business day of February. Following the March policy meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) noted that the Unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level and labor market conditions remain solid. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that Fed policymakers project a 4.4% unemployment rate at the end of 2025, compared to 4.3% in December’s SEP. In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated that the labor market seemed to be broadly in balance.
It is important to note that while the JOLTS data refers to the end of February, the official Employment report, which will be released on Friday, measures data for March. Additionally, market participants could refrain from taking large positions based on this data before US President Donald Trump announces the details of the new tariff regime on Wednesday.
In February, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000, falling short of the market expectation for an increase of 160,000. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets are pricing in a less-than-20% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in May. Although the job openings data is unlikely to influence the Fed rate outlook, a significant negative surprise, with a reading at or below 7 million, could weigh on the US Dollar (USD) with the immediate reaction. On the other hand, the market positioning suggests that the USD doesn’t have a lot of room on the upside, even if the data comes in better than forecast.
"Hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.3 million,” the BLS said in its January JOLTS report. “Within separations, quits (3.3 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little.”
When will the JOLTS report be released and how could it affect EUR/USD?
Job opening numbers will be published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, shares his technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD clings to a bullish stance but lacks momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holding slightly above 50. On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns as a key support level at 1.0730 before 1.0585-1.0570 (50-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the October-January downtrend).”
“Looking north, the first resistance level could be spotted at 1.0900 (static level) ahead of 1.1000 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.1100 (static level).”
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
