Gold price (XAU/USD) retains its bullish bias through the first half of the European session on Friday and touches a fresh all-time peak, around the $3,086 region in the last hour. The global risk sentiment continues to be undermined by worries over US President Donald Trump's auto tariffs announced on Wednesday, the uncertainty about impending reciprocal tariffs next week, and their effect on the global economy. The anti-risk flow is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets, which, in turn, is seen driving safe-haven flows toward the precious metal.
Furthermore, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, on the back of concerns that Trump's trade policies will dent US growth, turns out to be another factor underpinning the non-yielding Gold price. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers following the overnight pullback from a multi-week top amid some repositioning trade ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, due for release later today. This, however, does little to undermine demand for the XAU/USD pair or hinder the ongoing move up.
From a technical perspective, this week's bullish resilience near the $3,000 psychological mark and the subsequent move up suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is already flashing overbought conditions and warrants some caution. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so.
Meanwhile, any corrective slide now seems to attract some dip-buyers near the $3,050-3,048 horizontal zone. This should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,036-3,035 region. A sustained break below the latter, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAU/USD below the $3,020-3,019 intermediate support, back toward the $3,000 mark. The said handle should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, which if broken decisively should pave the way for some meaningful fall in the near term.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator can account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve. Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Read more.Next release: Fri Mar 28, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 2.5%
Previous: 2.5%
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis
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