Gold price (XAU/USD) surrenders a major part of its early gains to a fresh record high as traders opt to take some profits off the table amid overbought conditions and ahead of US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement. Adding to this, a positive tone around the Asian equity markets undermines the precious metal, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, contributes to the intraday pullback.
However, persistent worries about the potential economic fallout from the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle soon, amid worries about a tariff-driven slowdown in US economic growth, should keep a lid on the USD gains and underpin the non-yielding yellow metal.
From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands well above the 70 mark and indicates overbought conditions. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move. Nevertheless, the overnight breakout above the $3,100 mark and the subsequent move up suggest that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Hence, any corrective pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited.
In the meantime, the $3,128-3,127 region could act as immediate support ahead of the $3,100 round figure. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some long-unwinding and drag the Gold price below the $3,076 area, or the overnight swing low, towards the $3,057-3,058 resistance breakpoint en route to the $3,036-3,035 support zone. This is followed by the $3,000 psychological mark, which should act as a strong base for the XAU/USD and key pivotal point for short-term traders.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.Next release: Tue Apr 01, 2025 14:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 49.5
Previous: 50.3
Source: Institute for Supply Management
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.
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