Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises above $3,000 to record highs amid safe-haven demand
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Akhtar Faruqui
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18 Mar @ 02:21 (GMT+0)

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises above $3,000 to record highs amid safe-haven demand

  • Gold prices soared to a record high of $3,005, fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
  • Market uncertainty deepened as US reaffirmed its commitment to striking Yemen’s Houthis until they cease attacks on Red Sea shipping.
  • Gold demand remained strong, bolstered by continued purchases from ETFs and central banks, with China leading acquisitions.

Gold price (XAU/USD) surged to a record high of $3,005 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Tuesday, driven by strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

The US reaffirmed its commitment to striking Yemen’s Houthis until they halt attacks on Red Sea shipping, further unsettling markets. US President Donald Trump warned on Monday that he would hold Iran accountable for any attacks by the Houthi group it supports in Yemen. Trump administration has since expanded the largest US military operation in the Middle East since Trump returned to office. 

On Sunday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for an assault involving 18 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with drones, targeting the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier and its escorting warships in the northern Red Sea.

Meanwhile, the Israeli military reported extensive strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza. Medics in the region confirmed at least 30 fatalities in what has been described as the most intense airstrikes since the ceasefire began on January 19. A senior Hamas official accused Israel of unilaterally violating the agreement, according to Reuters.

Trade war concerns also weighed on investor sentiment, as the US and key trading partners exchanged fresh tariff threats. The demand for Gold remained robust, supported by ongoing purchases from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and central banks—most notably China, which extended its Gold acquisitions for a fourth consecutive month.

Investors now turn their focus to upcoming central bank policy meetings, particularly the US Federal Reserve’s decision later this week. The Fed is widely expected to maintain interest rates amid rising trade tensions and mounting economic concerns, with markets pricing in only two rate cuts this year.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.