GBP/USD moves below 1.3000, downside seems limited as US Dollar remains vulnerable
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Akhtar Faruqui
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18 Mar @ 03:11 (GMT+0)

GBP/USD moves below 1.3000, downside seems limited as US Dollar remains vulnerable

  • GBP/USD could see further gains as the US Dollar may struggle amid rising economic concerns in the United States.
  • Markets widely anticipate that the Fed will keep its current policy stance unchanged on Wednesday.
  • Traders expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting on Thursday.

GBP/USD retreats after gaining in the previous session, hovering around 1.2970 during Asian trading on Tuesday. The pair faces pressure as the US Dollar (USD) attempts to recover losses from the last two sessions. However, downside movement may be limited, as the Greenback remains vulnerable amid rising trade tensions and growing economic concerns in the United States (US).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, trades positively around 103.50 at the time of writing. However, the US Dollar could further lose ground as weak US economic data and Trump’s tariff threats add to investor uncertainty.

February’s US Retail Sales rose less than expected, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in consumer spending. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its current policy stance when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

Data from the US Census Bureau on Monday showed that Retail Sales increased by 0.2% month-over-month in February, falling short of the expected 0.7%. This followed a revised -1.2% decline in January (previously -0.9%). On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew by 3.1%, down from the revised 3.9% in January (previously 4.2%).

The GBP/USD pair could find additional support as the Pound Sterling (GBP) strengthens on expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its interest rates at Thursday’s policy meeting. This cautious stance aims to balance sluggish economic growth with persistent inflation risks. In February, the central bank lowered rates to 4.5% and revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.75%, citing concerns over tax increases and global trade uncertainties.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.