GBP/USD falls to near 1.2400 due to risk-off sentiment following Trump tariff threats
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Akhtar Faruqui
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31 Jan @ 04:19 (GMT+0)

GBP/USD falls to near 1.2400 due to risk-off sentiment following Trump tariff threats

  • GBP/USD extends its decline as risk aversion rises, driven by renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.
  • Trump reiterated plans to impose a flat 25% import tax on all goods entering the US from Canada and Mexico.
  • The Pound Sterling struggles as traders expect the BoE to continue its rate-cut cycle in February.

GBP/USD continues its losing streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 1.2420 during the Asian hours on Friday. This downside is attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD) amid increased risk aversion following renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump.

President Trump reiterated plans late Thursday to impose a flat 25% import tax on all goods entering the US from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over fentanyl. The first wave of tariffs on both countries is set to take effect on February 1, according to Reuters. Additionally, Trump hinted at the possibility of imposing tariffs on Canadian and Mexican Oil exports. He also reaffirmed his threat on X (formerly Twitter) to levy 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they attempt to introduce an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar in international trade.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, trades above 108.00 at the time of writing. The Greenback strengthened after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) adopted a cautious tone regarding its policy decision in January.

The US Federal Reserve held its overnight borrowing rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its January meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. This decision followed three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a full percentage point.

During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering any further adjustments to monetary policy.

The Department of Commerce reported that Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q4) fell to 2.3% from 3.1%, missing expectations of 2.6%. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 24 came in at 207K, below forecasts of 220K but an improvement from the previous week’s 223K.

Investors now turn their attention to key US data releases later on Friday, including Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Personal Income and Spending figures, and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

The Pound Sterling (GBP) faces pressure as traders anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) will resume its rate-cut cycle at next week’s policy meeting. The BoE is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February, marking its third cut since August, when borrowing costs peaked at 5.25%.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.