Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades below the $3,100 mark, down for the second successive day. The downtick lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US monthly employment details, or the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
In the meantime, worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs might act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. Moreover, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariffs-driven US economic slowdown and a bearish US Dollar (USD) should limit losses for the non-yielding bullion.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent fall might continue to find decent support near the $2,056-2,054 horizontal zone. The said area nears the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the corrective slide further towards the $3,036-3,035 intermediate support en route to the $3,000 psychological mark,
On the flip side, the $3,115-3,125 congestion zone now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. This is followed by resistance near the $3,143 area and the all-time peak, around the $3,157-3,158 region touched on Thursday, which if cleared could be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of the Gold price's recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so.
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.Next release: Fri Apr 04, 2025 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 135K
Previous: 151K
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.
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