Will Gold continue to rise? – Commerzbank
This morning, the price of Gold reached a new all-time high of more than $2,700 per troy ounce, although the market is expecting significantly less interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve than at the beginning of the month and the US dollar has recently appreciated noticeably, Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Gold price can continue to rise until the US elections
“Nor can the situation in the Middle East explain the continuing rise in the price of Gold, as it has eased somewhat. This raises the question of what could be behind the recent price increase. One possible reason could be the market momentum, with market participants still jumping on the bandwagon.”
“The weekly data on the market positioning of speculative investors, which will be published by the CFTC after the close of trading today, could provide some insight into this. An increase in speculative net long positions would support this argument. Another reason could be the uncertainty in the run-up to the US elections.”
“The latest polls show Donald Trump gaining ground. Should he return to the White House in January, the risk of inflation is likely to increase markedly. Rising inflation is favourable for Gold if the Fed does not react appropriately. This risk exists because Trump wants to influence the Fed's interest rate decisions. The Gold price could therefore continue to rise until the US elections if the probability rose that Trump will win.”
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