The Australian Dollar (AUD) holds losses against the US Dollar (USD) after US President Donald Trump stated early Monday that he "will impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on April 2," with no exemptions for steel and aluminum. Reciprocal tariffs on certain countries will be implemented alongside auto duties. Additionally, an announcement regarding Russia-Ukraine talks may come on Tuesday.
However, the AUD/USD pair gained ground following the release of China’s economic data. Traders will likely observe the US Retail Sales data scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
China's retail sales grew by 4.0% year-over-year in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% increase. Meanwhile, industrial production rose 5.9% YoY during the same period, exceeding the 5.3% forecast but slightly lower than the previous reading of 6.2%.
The AUD could gain ground as China unveiled a special action plan over the weekend to revive consumption, lifting market sentiment across the region. The plan includes measures to increase wages, boost household spending, and stabilize stock and real estate markets. Any positive developments surrounding the Chinese stimulus plan could boost the Australian Dollar, as China is a major trading partner to Australia.
The AUD/USD pair may receive support from improving risk sentiment amid reports of a potential ceasefire discussion between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, stated on Sunday that he expects the two leaders to speak, adding that Putin “accepts the philosophy” of Trump’s ceasefire and peace terms, according to The Guardian.
The AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6340 on Monday, maintaining a bullish outlook after reclaiming its position within the ascending channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also rebounded above 50, further supporting the positive momentum.
Immediate support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6309, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6306 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A decisive break below this critical support zone could weaken the bullish bias, exposing the AUD/USD pair to downward pressure toward the six-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may attempt to retest the three-month high of 0.6408, last seen on February 21. A breakout above this level would reinforce the bullish bias, potentially driving the pair toward the ascending channel’s upper boundary near 0.6470.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.00% | 0.03% | 0.18% | -0.06% | 0.08% | -0.21% | -0.03% | |
EUR | -0.00% | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.22% | -0.06% | |
GBP | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.19% | -0.18% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.04% | |
JPY | -0.18% | 0.23% | -0.19% | -0.24% | -0.32% | -0.33% | -0.34% | |
CAD | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.18% | 0.24% | -0.07% | -0.14% | -0.52% | |
AUD | -0.08% | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.32% | 0.07% | -0.13% | 0.02% | |
NZD | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.15% | 0.33% | 0.14% | 0.13% | 0.16% | |
CHF | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.34% | 0.52% | -0.02% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
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