Fed's Waller: I don't see case for a March rate cut
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governing Board Member Christopher Waller noted on Thursday that recent data has made it more difficult to argue in favor of additional rate cuts heading into the tail end of the first quarter.
Key highlights
Not all tariffs are passed through.
Fed policy is still restrictive.
Fed can cut rates for positive and negative reasons.
I'm still believing good rate cut cast is in place.
Seeing some signs of softer data.
We have to respond to hard data.
I'm waiting to see if weakness in soft data shows up in broader statistics.
The Fed still needs more data to understand economic outlook.
I don't see case for a March rate cut.
I could see rate cuts after the March Fed meeting.
If February data comes in good, I will feel better about inflation.
A median of two cuts for this year remains reasonable.
80K to 100K is likely break even for the job market.
Job market conditions more closely resemble pre-pandemic times.
Past trump tariffs were more modest, and very little was passed through.
It's very hard to eat a 25% tariff.
I'm particularly interested in market pricing of inflation expectations.
Markets are not pricing in any serious long-term inflation.
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