GBP/USD holds steady below 1.2500; softer USD acts as a tailwind
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Haresh Menghani
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05 Feb @ 04:35 (GMT+0)

GBP/USD holds steady below 1.2500; softer USD acts as a tailwind

  • GBP/USD consolidates near the top end of its weekly trading range. 
  • Traders seem reluctant ahead of the key BoE meeting on Thursday.
  • The USD hangs near the weekly low and lends support to the major.

The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and consolidates near a one-week top, below the 1.2500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling. 

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, hangs near the weekly low amid the prospects for further policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The bets were reaffirmed by the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday, which pointed to a slowdown in the US labor market and should allow the Fed to lower borrowing costs further despite stick inflation. 

Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment remains supported by the optimism led by US President Donald Trump's decision to delay tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, which helped ease concerns about a trade war and its impact on the global economy. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven buck and acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

Investors, however, remain concerned about the potential fallout from trade tensions between the US and China – the world's top two economies. This, along with the Fed's hawkish outlook, helps limit the downside for the USD and caps the upside for the GBP/USD pair. Traders also seem reluctant and might opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the key central bank event risk – the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting on Thursday.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.