Pound Sterling wobbles ahead of BoE Bailey’s speech

• The Pound Sterling trades with caution as investors await BoE Bailey’s speech for fresh guidance on interest rates.
• Bailey may reiterate a dovish stance on the interest-rate outlook, signaling that more interest-rate cuts are on the way.
• The US Dollar outlook remains upbeat as uncertainty increases ahead of the US presidential election.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) continues to hold the key support of 1.2970 against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday’s London session. However, the outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains uncertain as the US Dollar grips gains near an 11-week high and is expected to gain further amid United States (US) election uncertainty. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to gains near 104.00.

A sheer strength in the US Dollar suggests that traders are pricing in former US President Donald Trump’s victory in presidential elections, which are just two weeks away. Trump vowed to hike tariffs and lower taxes in his election promises if he wins. The scenario will undermine the currencies of the US’s close trading partners and keep interest rates escalated. However, the latest national polls have shown a neck-and-neck competition between Trump and US Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

Regarding the interest rate outlook, traders have priced in two rate cuts of 25 bps by the US Central Bank in November and December. The Fed can afford to avoid a sizeable interest rate cut in November, as earlier expected after a slew of upbeat US economic data for September diminished risks of an economic slowdown.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling to be influenced by flash PMI data

• The Pound Sterling performs mixed against its major peers on Tuesday, struggling for direction as investors await the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech, who will speak at 13:25 GMT at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York. In his speech, Bailey is expected to provide fresh guidance on the interest-rate outlook, a key driver for the Pound Sterling’s valuation.
• In an interview with the Guardian newspaper at the start of the month, Bailey stressed the need to cut interest rates aggressively if price pressures continue to ease. He said the BoE could become "a bit more activist" and "a bit more aggressive" in its approach to lowering rates if there was further welcome news on inflation.
• Meanwhile, a column written by BoE’s rate-setter Megan Greene, published in the Financial Times on Monday, indicated that the policymaker favored a gradual rate-cut approach, with doubts over whether forward consumption levels will be strong or weak.
• According to market speculation, traders are confident about the BoE cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75% in November. For December, traders are also betting heavily for another 25 bps cut, Reuters reported.
• On the economic front, investors will focus on the flash S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for October, which will be published on Thursday.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling trades cautiously near 1.3000

The Pound Sterling trades close to near the psychological support of 1.3000 in European trading hours. The near-term outlook of the GBP/USD remains bearish as it hovers below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.3090. 

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40.00. A breakdown through the same will strengthen the bearish momentum.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline drawn from the April 22 low of 1.2300 will be a major support zone for Pound Sterling bulls near 1.2920. On the upside, the Cable will face resistance near the 20-day EMA around 1.3110.