EUR/USD languishes on ECB dovish bets, firm US Dollar

• EUR/USD remains inside the woods as the ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in December.
• ECB’s Lagarde will provide fresh cues on the interest rate outlook on Tuesday.
• Fed policymakers see smaller interest rate cuts as appropriate.

EUR/USD remains fragile near the immediate support of 1.0800 due to multiple headwinds, such as firm US Dollar (USD) and escalating European Central Bank (ECB) dovish bets. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, clings to gains near a fresh 11-week high around 104.00. The Greenback gains on United States (US) presidential election jitters and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will follow a moderate policy-easing cycle.

Latest polls have shown a neck-to-neck competition between former US President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harrish ahead of elections, which are just two weeks away. Trump's victory is expected to result in higher import tariffs and lower taxes, which could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates further. 

Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The reasoning behind firm speculation for a slower rate-cut cycle is investors’ growing confidence in US economic resilience after upbeat Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), ISM Services PMI, and the Retail Sales data for September. Also, Fed officials see a gradual rate-cut path as appropriate.

This week, investors will keep an eye on the preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for October, which will be published on Thursday.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains edgy on ECB seems to cut interest rates again

• EUR/USD trades close to a fresh 11-week low near the round-level support of 1.0800 in Tuesday’s European session. The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure as traders have priced in the ECB to cut interest rates again in the December meeting as growing risks to Eurozone’s economic growth are expected to keep inflationary pressures within striking distance of the central bank’s target of 2%. This would mean the fourth interest rate cut by the ECB this year.
• Data released on Monday showed that the German Producer Price Index (PPI) deflated by 1.4% year-over-year (YoY) in September, faster than 0.8% in August, and pointed to the inability of producers to raise prices of goods and services at factory gates due to weak household spending.
• On Monday, Slovak central bank chief and ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir said he is increasingly confident that the disinflation trend is intact. However, he wants to see more evidence before declaring a victory over inflation.
• Meanwhile, the commentary from Lithuanian central bank governor and ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus appeared to be more dovish. Šimkus said, "If the disinflation processes get entrenched, it's possible that rates will be lower than the natural level." The ‘natural level’ of interest rates is between 2% and 3%.
• In Tuesday’s session, investors will pay close attention to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s interview with Bloomberg and her participation in a panel discussion during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting in Washington. Lagarde is expected to provide fresh guidance on interest rates.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD stays below 200-day EMA

EUR/USD struggles to hold the immediate support of 1.0800 in European trading hours. The outlook of the major currency pair remains uncertain as it trades below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0900.

The downside move in the shared currency pair started after a breakdown of a Double Top formation on a daily timeframe near the September 11 low at around 1.1000, which resulted in a bearish reversal.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dives below 30.00, indicating a strong bearish momentum. However, a recovery move remains on the cards as conditions turn oversold.

On the downside, the major could find support near the upward-sloping trendline at 1.0750, which is plotted from the October 3 low around 1.0450. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA and the psychological figure of 1.1000 will be the key resistances for the pair.